{"id":"W1997443943","doi":"10.1348/135532508x330994","title":"Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC‐99: A Bayes analysis","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Legal and Criminological Psychology","topic":"Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending","field":"Psychology","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Recidivism; Bayes' theorem; Sample (material); Statistics; Context (archaeology); Odds; Prison; Psychology; Bayesian probability; Bayes factor; Mathematics; Clinical psychology; Criminology; Logistic regression; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003773573,0.000315136,0.0005849468,0.0001444277,0.0004302607,0.00001616794,0.000735431,0.0002975872,0.0006096301],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003670705,0.0001651166,0.0002695309,0.001078497,0.002370768,0.00007479101,0.0001876422,0.000718722,0.00003175848],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001353748,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003210068,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002950498,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003919359,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969352,0.0007011525,0.0006569267,0.0008048256,0.0002835539,0.00061827],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975753,0.0007984897,0.0003644032,0.001029695,0.0001116204,0.0001205061],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001515391,0.001805621,0.7431362,0.00003675049,0.002572209,0.0001579592,0.008509988,0.00002285445,0.001741297,0.0293606,0.1693138,0.04182729],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007019287,0.0006224009,0.984359,0.000008420888,0.0004269201,0.0003653188,0.00100911,0.0001964632,0.0000214235,0.005346243,0.006756699,0.0001860892],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9094399,0.0007707101,0.001217558,0.003084429,0.01045765,0.0003563919,0.00005492979,0.00009571481,0.0745227],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9958509,0.00002062609,0.0004385855,0.002978441,0.0003312239,0.00005057136,0.000004902921,0.00001572887,0.0003090462],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2412228,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8735191,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1497984065190991,"score_gpt":0.3520751800813921,"score_spread":0.202276773562293,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}