{"id":"W1999759148","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-10-05005.1","title":"Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather Climate and Society","topic":"Climate Change Communication and Perception","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Context (archaeology); Psychological resilience; Population; Identity (music); Sociology; Psychology; Social psychology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007253308,0.0006476606,0.0003614321,0.001149597,0.004323658,0.002691028,0.001060428,0.001520997,0.001857672],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02712081,0.0003512435,0.0003403909,0.0009666005,0.006351527,0.003556593,0.003073582,0.002140402,0.0001296861],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.005182982,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00356478,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05676421,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06723193,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9958065,0.003077255,0.000137358,0.0002453135,0.000453538,0.0002800115],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9750406,0.02106891,0.002033826,0.0005677885,0.000975032,0.0003137699],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"qualitative","study_design_gemma":"qualitative","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003415181,0.00001400611,0.007472375,0.0001084627,0.000007441554,0.001148102,0.9736104,0.000720147,0.001053357,0.009870258,0.0007331303,0.005228188],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001705798,0.00003108235,0.00995056,0.0005294094,0.00002106993,0.0003576371,0.9439939,0.007151003,0.001035774,0.01129232,0.02556607,0.00005418114],"study_design_candidate":"qualitative","study_design_consensus":"qualitative","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9541664,0.0007461493,0.00912864,0.01212089,0.000103061,0.00006487961,0.0001796381,0.00005884348,0.02343157],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988195,0.0001819951,0.0004592875,0.000126421,0.000008388164,0.00001150311,0.00001760334,0.000006704806,0.0003686697],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05676421,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1128676,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4502446962812832,"score_gpt":0.4204087175484816,"score_spread":0.02983597873280164,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}