{"id":"W2012620166","doi":"10.1126/science.287.5453.667","title":"A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics","year":2000,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":689,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Measles; Simple (philosophy); Chaotic; Statistical physics; Physics; Nonlinear system; Epidemic model; Biology; Vaccination; Virology; Demography; Computer science; Quantum mechanics; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005580242,0.0005771162,0.0009179421,0.0009721247,0.001091239,0.002114981,0.001773803,0.003030878,0.01069456],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003193196,0.0004155354,0.001078082,0.0008550126,0.001561293,0.002912648,0.001613082,0.001559453,0.001617608],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001266632,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001035591,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005715915,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002984097,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995928,0.0001266439,0.00002603543,0.00008666021,0.00009588221,0.00007201511],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992898,0.0003042627,0.0001055329,0.00006805951,0.00008092215,0.0001514835],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001386257,0.0001246326,0.001094141,0.0001416116,0.00007174092,0.0009781854,0.0005410321,0.2543246,0.003058528,0.7245906,0.007757321,0.007178965],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001735694,0.00007712033,0.0004419739,0.00002935264,0.00003464106,0.0004005191,0.0000796592,0.6253024,0.0001513345,0.3620591,0.01120508,0.00004517773],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.280391,0.002993864,0.5082212,0.01787371,0.001094193,0.0004735215,0.002722079,0.001279635,0.1849507],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9311662,0.001244404,0.02147581,0.00102592,0.0003748117,0.0003893517,0.0004931593,0.0001025453,0.04372778],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01069456,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03577685,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4105547447495083,"score_gpt":0.4831639749968927,"score_spread":0.07260923024738442,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}