{"id":"W2014016271","doi":"10.5367/000000008783554884","title":"Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks: Evidence from International Monthly Arrivals in the USA","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Tourism Economics","topic":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":31,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Structural break; Mean reversion; Series (stratigraphy); Economics; Econometrics; Shock (circulatory); Terrorism; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003708217,0.0001244777,0.0002237991,0.0001204135,0.0001360141,0.00008137496,0.0002625326,0.00009713916,0.000193487],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001752097,0.0001233932,0.00006115199,0.00005688748,0.00006766011,0.0007357835,0.00004574078,0.0002254801,0.0000824102],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001088042,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002622212,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006400915,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001698029,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998937,0.00001727921,0.0005305885,0.0003345741,0.00002880423,0.0001517931],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993204,0.000197421,0.0002217773,0.0002060015,0.00002023372,0.00003415349],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009152047,0.00004016323,0.9549091,0.000003821576,0.00003389699,0.00001043422,0.005321548,0.008803956,0.00001430293,0.02499559,0.0009286058,0.004847012],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002515555,0.00001571056,0.7299933,0.00001318833,0.000002057984,0.000007475791,0.00008534162,0.2191922,0.00001613858,0.04737401,0.002902226,0.000146747],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9931467,0.0007808923,0.002297521,0.001221159,0.0005220516,0.0001228249,0.0001633228,0.000009789188,0.001735711],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9964197,0.001231254,0.0014794,0.000300232,0.0004076565,0.00001459181,0.00003612598,0.000009588802,0.0001014076],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2249158,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9676312,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06171875499288534,"score_gpt":0.2514448800271067,"score_spread":0.1897261250342213,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}