{"id":"W2024467329","doi":"10.2469/faj.v67.n3.6","title":"The Margin of Safety and Turning Points in House Prices: Observations from Three Developed Markets","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Financial Analysts Journal","topic":"Housing Market and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Mean reversion; Economics; Economic rent; Quarter (Canadian coin); Inflation (cosmology); Margin (machine learning); Econometrics; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Market economy; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000488183,0.0002320538,0.0002401959,0.0008549763,0.0003068001,0.0006097107,0.0002333133,0.0003273599,0.0005980807],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001891048,0.0001896156,0.0003119789,0.001275655,0.0003788367,0.0004672142,0.0004791113,0.0004704754,0.0001765915],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005664754,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002692182,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04353077,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.08472163,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998658,0.0000219375,0.00001665299,0.00002959066,0.0000243125,0.00004173844],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998268,0.0003553944,0.0008270143,0.00009631344,0.0002554152,0.0001978477],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005338684,0.0001721801,0.9855493,0.00003644578,0.0001213816,0.0004508957,0.001119029,0.002683436,0.001309514,0.0004977739,0.001652189,0.005873979],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001696638,0.00004999487,0.9970109,0.000005173476,0.00001681099,0.00005247643,0.0002577557,0.001393614,0.0003907794,0.0001084997,0.0006853828,0.00001147289],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9986155,0.00006026445,0.0001149696,0.00001739655,0.000001723178,0.000003827879,0.0008660992,0.000003259316,0.0003169612],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970325,0.00007210348,0.0001449661,0.000009175948,0.000004899619,0.000004511339,0.002566669,0.000002124172,0.0001629699],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04353077,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08655477,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05887028493107427,"score_gpt":0.2049800425015268,"score_spread":0.1461097575704526,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}