{"id":"W2026556576","doi":"10.1007/s00199-004-0532-2","title":"Excess price volatility and financial innovation","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Theory","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Volatility swap; Volatility (finance); Volatility smile; Implied volatility; Volatility risk premium; Volatility risk; Incomplete markets; Financial market; Financial economics; Stochastic volatility; Monetary economics; Microeconomics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001779111,0.0002053955,0.0005880343,0.001359343,0.000267493,0.002235483,0.0004555304,0.001224822,0.003626043],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01455624,0.0001654572,0.0003063789,0.001518087,0.0016978,0.003191289,0.0009293265,0.00155203,0.0001961049],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007591571,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003736558,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001049258,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007493704,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995875,0.0001254919,0.00003003688,0.0000692135,0.0001183876,0.00006932416],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9885465,0.008448952,0.001578467,0.0004772404,0.0005456744,0.0004031634],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001471693,0.0001230314,0.03852061,0.0001326812,0.0001377614,0.0004053488,0.0004024609,0.03413743,0.0007363796,0.8813866,0.002893823,0.04097665],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002003638,0.00002552178,0.01975953,0.00001904384,0.00004178071,0.0001726352,0.0001399566,0.02985635,0.0001383344,0.9481497,0.001657144,0.0000198902],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9102715,0.008886611,0.03927802,0.01177003,0.0003317235,0.00001274902,0.0001875295,0.0001289706,0.02913282],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.996145,0.001463742,0.0004448185,0.0001185554,0.000306433,0.000003358188,0.00003764475,0.000005450529,0.001475006],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003626043,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01213032,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01728741701040328,"score_gpt":0.2030893002942453,"score_spread":0.185801883283842,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}