{"id":"W2030234659","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.009","title":"Perhaps the 1970s FOMC did what it said it did","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Monetary Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":40,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"University of Toronto","keywords":"Monetary policy; Inflation (cosmology); Economics; Open market operation; Monetary economics; Keynesian economics; Inflation targeting; Interest rate; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001845492,0.0004058658,0.001103412,0.0003854568,0.0002601149,0.0005039093,0.001013919,0.0002089704,0.001256246],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001036109,0.000366605,0.000720131,0.0001159549,0.0001211347,0.002764465,0.00007072081,0.0006506157,0.0009262448],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002933346,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000057141,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001403398,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006134564,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9964646,0.0000469166,0.002331255,0.0004376676,0.00004927723,0.0006702658],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967582,0.0001966873,0.001940095,0.0007485773,0.00002841148,0.0003280398],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001793022,0.001555106,0.05536985,0.0001205883,0.002912618,0.0002184243,0.01372187,0.3792558,0.0001180758,0.05739671,0.3935664,0.09397152],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003437622,0.001506165,0.05600312,0.0001374942,0.000139871,0.0009139216,0.001665446,0.05522948,0.0001734159,0.1098371,0.7694885,0.001467868],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9141064,0.01076774,0.0003252387,0.06122734,0.002177768,0.0002555581,0.0001014124,0.0000179442,0.01102061],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9603816,0.02053908,0.0006761593,0.01575787,0.001420558,0.000002645834,0.00001575269,0.00004027157,0.001166064],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3759221,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998786,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06688075269741096,"score_gpt":0.2252724517409331,"score_spread":0.1583916990435221,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}