{"id":"W2031661751","doi":"10.1002/fut.20235","title":"Extreme volatility, speculative efficiency, and the hedging effectiveness of the oil futures markets","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Futures Markets","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":95,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"PricewaterhouseCoopers (Canada); Concordia University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Futures contract; Volatility (finance); Economics; Crude oil; Spot contract; Financial economics; Spot market; Futures market; Econometrics; Monetary economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002554652,0.0001985279,0.0003564213,0.0008509622,0.0002348889,0.001669211,0.0002697154,0.0003819418,0.001591484],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01578248,0.0001710255,0.0002148138,0.0005131177,0.0006857857,0.001811661,0.0006034615,0.0004770822,0.0001334568],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004184659,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002060306,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001285234,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006973772,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999616,0.0001311031,0.00004167038,0.00005089544,0.0001099108,0.00005041429],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9913373,0.005060626,0.002344125,0.0005572824,0.0004474436,0.0002531671],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001519677,0.0003107572,0.8121886,0.00008533298,0.0004042095,0.0009470711,0.001114184,0.07145122,0.01313947,0.03750505,0.0005818263,0.06075268],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006327102,0.0003865095,0.767028,0.00003924883,0.0001092561,0.0008294882,0.0007241648,0.1893603,0.00543631,0.03457053,0.001388701,0.00006417454],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9965265,0.0002040627,0.001486103,0.00008681817,0.000002477929,0.0000034637,0.00002642623,0.000004436017,0.001659638],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9996612,0.0000508197,0.0001492738,0.000004115715,0.000006100333,6.791677e-7,0.00002733119,0.000001102552,0.00009942037],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002554652,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01351047,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0101462660964394,"score_gpt":0.2013898858248835,"score_spread":0.1912436197284441,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}