{"id":"W2044641675","doi":"10.1080/13546780500172490","title":"Conditional probability and pragmatic conditionals: Dissociating truth and effectiveness","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Thinking & Reasoning","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Saskatchewan","funders":"","keywords":"Conditional probability; Inference; Regular conditional probability; Statement (logic); Conditional expectation; Conditional independence; Law of total probability; Mathematics; Conditional probability distribution; Psychology; Econometrics; Statistics; Artificial intelligence; Cognitive psychology; Computer science; Random variable; Epistemology; Posterior probability; Philosophy; Probability mass function","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00618606,0.0001833671,0.0003935143,0.0001378265,0.0006694579,0.0007456675,0.0002283852,0.0001024541,0.00008775134],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004846235,0.0001501502,0.00007209672,0.000232109,0.0002236114,0.0005080475,0.0001652855,0.0002009263,0.00002521043],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009798244,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005104367,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007487295,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001852405,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974343,0.0003910529,0.0005869109,0.0005999902,0.0007304447,0.0002572617],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.99098,0.00810061,0.0004071746,0.00024645,0.0001836977,0.00008203968],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006076775,0.0001815344,0.6307395,0.0000501261,0.00003323471,0.00002624413,0.001089139,0.001099319,0.0004139343,0.2808871,0.0003089466,0.08511016],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002688701,0.00002311791,0.381179,0.0001323895,0.00001498408,0.00003734007,0.00014467,0.001615465,0.00003779722,0.6163325,0.00008840653,0.0001254195],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9947873,0.0001705124,0.002918368,0.0001206568,0.0001717168,0.0002121052,0.00005359031,0.00008009193,0.001485631],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9910309,0.000001827926,0.00870677,0.00005024666,0.00009705518,0.00002175466,0.00003955285,0.00001411409,0.00003777775],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3354454,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7190489,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04135405219078417,"score_gpt":0.3520124338870457,"score_spread":0.3106583816962616,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}