{"id":"W2048936606","doi":"10.1142/s1793005706000567","title":"PREDICTION OF BIRD FLU A(H5N1) OUTBREAKS IN TAIWAN BY ONLINE AUCTION: EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"New Mathematics and Natural Computation","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Centre for Addiction and Mental Health","funders":"National Science Council","keywords":"Tournament; Futures contract; Outbreak; Order (exchange); Database transaction; Influenza A virus subtype H5N1; Computer science; Incentive; Convergence (economics); Business; Computer security; Operations research; Economics; Financial economics; Microeconomics; Database; Engineering; Finance; Mathematics; Virology; Medicine; Economic growth","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001555506,0.0001063689,0.0003046854,0.0001768935,0.00004527239,0.00003695938,0.00005021016,0.00005779163,0.0000207308],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001591359,0.0001105034,0.00005924205,0.0002432542,0.0000230135,0.0001356794,0.00002479219,0.00007484228,0.000007587229],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004946119,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000006568454,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001900483,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001971501,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988373,0.000006633858,0.000790518,0.0002076725,0.00005302472,0.0001048336],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994336,0.00002245955,0.0003910215,0.00009529946,0.00002870164,0.00002891946],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001040742,0.008458865,0.05225039,0.002078754,0.0009894358,0.0000235022,0.02542497,0.04120886,0.0349926,0.6825216,0.1008407,0.05016958],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004002139,0.000331004,0.03953219,0.0001322923,0.00002534177,0.00002132919,0.001346371,0.8818628,0.0008686652,0.06571629,0.005718001,0.0004435534],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9831914,0.004300124,0.01008386,0.0004480292,0.0002745108,0.0002360285,0.0002744253,0.00005297486,0.001138655],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9942461,0.0000150655,0.004824658,0.000009552112,0.0001002539,0.000002281789,0.0001767782,0.00001317349,0.0006121822],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.840654,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4506198,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02382200165840713,"score_gpt":0.2244866922409341,"score_spread":0.200664690582527,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}