{"id":"W2048936606","doi":"10.1142/s1793005706000567","title":"PREDICTION OF BIRD FLU A(H5N1) OUTBREAKS IN TAIWAN BY ONLINE AUCTION: EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"New Mathematics and Natural Computation","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Centre for Addiction and Mental Health","funders":"National Science Council","keywords":"Tournament; Futures contract; Outbreak; Order (exchange); Database transaction; Influenza A virus subtype H5N1; Computer science; Incentive; Convergence (economics); Business; Computer security; Operations research; Economics; Financial economics; Microeconomics; Database; Engineering; Finance; Mathematics; Virology; Medicine; Economic growth","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005575665,0.0009279175,0.001027424,0.0004872636,0.0003727013,0.0007119638,0.001094667,0.001374734,0.001652295],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01271139,0.0003632457,0.0007157012,0.0004635475,0.0007313748,0.001118792,0.0007179692,0.001209315,0.0002615843],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005348086,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007183655,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004871766,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002287492,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985548,0.0006651198,0.0001802894,0.0002433464,0.0001817048,0.0001747271],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9668747,0.02655876,0.002474749,0.002370113,0.001111659,0.000609947],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.02292923,0.04568413,0.09324388,0.001018702,0.001350012,0.0009976681,0.0005803335,0.7369862,0.02393234,0.002572168,0.002930421,0.06777495],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001656417,0.0125865,0.01580322,0.00002287699,0.0002077746,0.0001090403,0.0001587367,0.9549441,0.0121644,0.001834042,0.0004499523,0.00006294157],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9971178,0.0000948188,0.00194113,0.00007753246,0.00001890489,0.00007396802,0.000225858,0.00005886159,0.0003911834],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9947428,0.00006775867,0.004099641,0.00004620978,0.00001858469,0.0001162974,0.0004772877,0.00001043895,0.0004209658],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005575665,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02948731,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02382200165840713,"score_gpt":0.2244866922409341,"score_spread":0.200664690582527,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}