{"id":"W2049348576","doi":"10.5539/ijsp.v1n2p164","title":"The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Statistics and Probability","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":58,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Efficient-market hypothesis; Econometrics; Economics; Random walk hypothesis; Stock market; Autocorrelation; Stock (firearms); Market efficiency; Statistical hypothesis testing; Order (exchange); Returns to scale; Technical analysis; Financial market; Investment (military); Financial economics; Statistics; Mathematics; Finance; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002066864,0.00007028384,0.0001918996,0.00005617261,0.0000955507,0.0001241658,0.0002326397,0.00002423026,0.0003543494],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001550089,0.00005041866,0.00007011469,0.00007295612,0.00009236242,0.0001151612,0.00006263926,0.00009762043,0.00001744191],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00008074504,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002241338,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00005077722,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001081575,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989374,0.00003984178,0.0006780875,0.0000947872,0.00011145,0.0001384879],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998219,0.0007612412,0.0005156342,0.0001166983,0.0002982907,0.00008919094],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000239426,0.0002635164,0.5283942,0.00003908047,0.0005235769,0.00000734013,0.0008308419,0.0001424339,0.000006876917,0.4252768,0.01562226,0.02865363],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002888067,0.00009936014,0.640528,0.00004981225,0.00002829936,0.00008360659,0.0001126845,0.006392746,0.000007403856,0.1682937,0.1839519,0.0001636579],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6930052,0.04369327,0.2284007,0.01499083,0.00591498,0.0004468987,0.001013933,0.00001830369,0.01251584],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9933245,0.0004181532,0.005701345,0.00006762465,0.0002545933,0.000002303777,5.398285e-7,0.000004715293,0.0002262142],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3003193,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3879877,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.091521187100718,"score_gpt":0.283463549714293,"score_spread":0.191942362613575,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}