{"id":"W2051890110","doi":"10.5547/01956574.36.2.2","title":"The Convenience Yield and the Informational Content of the Oil Futures Price","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Energy Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Centre de Recherche Industrielle du Québec; Global Affairs Canada; University of Ottawa","funders":"","keywords":"Futures contract; Predictability; Yield (engineering); Economics; Econometrics; Spot contract; Convenience yield; Maturity (psychological); Normal backwardation; Financial economics; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002793017,0.00007014866,0.0001370475,0.00001855693,0.0007439007,0.0001057113,0.0004760153,0.00003148245,0.00005262085],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004643869,0.00002744228,0.00009829659,0.00007537331,0.0003501939,0.00008962378,0.0001072005,0.0002151449,0.000001333277],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001632111,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002125418,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001482382,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00007878122,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992318,0.00006739139,0.0004319806,0.00006398925,0.00007029754,0.0001345286],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985237,0.000585752,0.0005371904,0.0002686939,0.00005434711,0.00003030426],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005624937,0.000006976448,0.005968568,0.000003394208,0.00003539348,3.807196e-8,0.0005111357,0.0001106935,0.000005527402,0.9863232,0.0004351014,0.006543751],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001585043,0.00005153814,0.1963769,0.00003828471,0.00001871045,0.0001122597,0.0008212643,0.2509577,0.00005520242,0.2811418,0.2686422,0.0001990556],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8656428,0.004598979,0.008691854,0.02888925,0.00176407,0.00009188653,0.00002748291,0.000007584366,0.09028602],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9964187,0.001007173,0.00001831338,0.0008189997,0.0001524661,0.00000424694,2.829484e-7,0.000003519997,0.001576297],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7051814,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5721558,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01761093528604414,"score_gpt":0.1757279403118912,"score_spread":0.158117005025847,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}