{"id":"W2059216036","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.384080","title":"Are Credit Ratings Procyclical?","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":106,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Monetary economics; Credit rating; Business; Economics; Financial system; Bond credit rating; Actuarial science; Credit risk; Credit reference","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004434171,0.000243196,0.000951396,0.001602477,0.0005477494,0.005118858,0.001193628,0.003280788,0.01218196],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07644233,0.0004170501,0.0004388562,0.002801189,0.002439036,0.003780945,0.0007379494,0.002795651,0.002876448],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001130836,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007784075,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005429206,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00555062,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977351,0.0004830525,0.0002889711,0.0005150032,0.0004561514,0.0005216034],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8470761,0.03729617,0.09848938,0.007016696,0.006232017,0.003889621],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001350612,0.0002854456,0.7193002,0.0003394372,0.0003138102,0.0009327588,0.001249435,0.002930764,0.001072625,0.05491552,0.05109979,0.1662096],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001812438,0.0001941825,0.8966234,0.0001594289,0.0001650017,0.0007652207,0.001335451,0.005291611,0.0006905911,0.07387231,0.02064132,0.00008025982],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8667139,0.007414662,0.003472398,0.05646676,0.0007154986,0.00007847398,0.004261628,0.0003853588,0.06049128],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9938135,0.001193782,0.0001419131,0.00113726,0.0007487463,0.00001209294,0.0003890424,0.00002729494,0.002536389],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01218196,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04075277,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01744084033780801,"score_gpt":0.2168272452258251,"score_spread":0.1993864048880171,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}