{"id":"W2059216036","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.384080","title":"Are Credit Ratings Procyclical?","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":106,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Monetary economics; Credit rating; Business; Economics; Financial system; Bond credit rating; Actuarial science; Credit risk; Credit reference","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001269297,0.0001332884,0.0002668412,0.0001567074,0.000317941,0.00008149499,0.0001802293,0.0000996907,0.0001703813],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006083235,0.0001431591,0.0001526827,0.0002562989,0.00004192606,0.0002128081,0.00001357261,0.001048126,0.0003494437],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005219987,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003182559,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002518272,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002138239,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977298,0.00001734513,0.0004991711,0.0002388968,0.00005315303,0.001461631],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990823,0.00002676756,0.000576162,0.0001750819,0.00004690877,0.00009278482],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000005398475,0.00004518598,0.07696716,0.000001915192,0.00002716866,0.000001684453,0.00005390955,0.00001916902,0.000007227318,0.9209066,0.0006829674,0.001281641],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004525237,0.00007643716,0.04056558,0.000006937007,0.000005755253,0.0001384918,0.0003114103,0.00006244903,0.00002213164,0.784057,0.1741064,0.0001948778],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8704627,0.01247186,0.07213885,0.001884322,0.001205097,0.0002708865,0.00002721057,0.00007775315,0.04146129],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9926026,0.001385529,0.0002541553,0.00005641732,0.0005040155,0.00001052159,0.00000229015,0.00002507442,0.005159406],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1734235,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5837857,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01744084033780801,"score_gpt":0.2168272452258251,"score_spread":0.1993864048880171,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}