{"id":"W2063479230","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-14-00342.1","title":"A Comparison of Two Techniques for Generating Nowcasting Ensembles. Part II: Analogs Selection and Comparison of Techniques","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Monthly Weather Review","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":48,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Nowcasting; Extrapolation; Predictability; Radar; Computer science; Heuristic; Quantitative precipitation forecast; Storm; Range (aeronautics); Precipitation; Meteorology; Statistical physics; Mathematics; Artificial intelligence; Statistics; Geography; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002402859,0.0005079362,0.0007184579,0.001475271,0.0003123551,0.0005879948,0.0007117043,0.0004977579,0.0009720137],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007986053,0.0002388061,0.0007383469,0.00112764,0.0001351333,0.0009076643,0.0008009403,0.0005923717,0.0002686864],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003095247,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000599721,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004588052,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005587553,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992661,0.000261447,0.00006838437,0.0001096376,0.0002419362,0.00005249466],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9963887,0.001937903,0.0001800555,0.0005378043,0.0008573337,0.00009817084],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006651537,0.0002998784,0.01425138,0.0002380552,0.0005147025,0.00007117446,0.0001627057,0.4068767,0.008233296,0.003791564,0.002259943,0.5626354],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008701933,0.0002204426,0.008738462,0.00002437836,0.00009137671,0.00005956712,0.00005327802,0.9828427,0.004686023,0.001467037,0.001701379,0.00002837319],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3120902,0.001325635,0.676467,0.0003099471,0.0002685799,0.0004276328,0.001419022,0.001926815,0.005765168],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6175725,0.0006413645,0.3780671,0.00006396237,0.0001359125,0.0002193541,0.002452443,0.0001758309,0.0006716339],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.004588052,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01270765,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1306317219178679,"score_gpt":0.3627275500682497,"score_spread":0.2320958281503818,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}