{"id":"W2064387569","doi":"10.2308/jiar.2005.4.1.23","title":"The Association between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of International Accounting Research","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":70,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Volatility (finance); Inflation (cosmology); Econometrics; Foreign exchange; Emerging markets; Consensus forecast; Association (psychology); Monetary economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005626708,0.0002127814,0.0002936297,0.001342372,0.0002298981,0.00173322,0.0002647245,0.0005662779,0.001284358],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1072933,0.0001822971,0.0002861952,0.001062998,0.000316878,0.001741547,0.000554495,0.0008373868,0.0003137887],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004004265,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003679868,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003894249,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003488435,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971201,0.000894647,0.0004599261,0.000312829,0.0009733972,0.0002391647],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8255199,0.1186129,0.03987213,0.004341418,0.01016576,0.001487971],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002088917,0.00002939288,0.9774811,0.00002022756,0.0001651502,0.00005585049,0.0003435796,0.006625362,0.0002555273,0.0004321519,0.0004785281,0.01390416],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001148322,0.0001032571,0.9707402,0.00005159334,0.00009330371,0.0002495487,0.0004948633,0.02371921,0.0007620825,0.002835043,0.0008875754,0.00005188935],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9939175,0.0007640563,0.001618125,0.0006813664,0.00003347426,0.000004416776,0.0002666675,0.00003502707,0.00267929],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9993873,0.0001215145,0.0001864967,0.00002373472,0.00003611806,9.774483e-7,0.0001303089,0.000003265901,0.0001103236],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005626708,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02975726,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0231178830069057,"score_gpt":0.3096561382884317,"score_spread":0.286538255281526,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}