{"id":"W2068392284","doi":"10.1111/2041-210x.12093","title":"Ecological prophets: quantifying metapopulation portfolio effects","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Methods in Ecology and Evolution","topic":"Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":89,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Simon Fraser University; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canada Research Chairs; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Fulbright Canada","keywords":"Metapopulation; Population; Ecology; Portfolio; Biology; Statistics; Econometrics; Mathematics; Economics; Demography; Financial economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009941048,0.0001032838,0.0001951345,0.000070227,0.0002172083,0.000008187157,0.00006094491,0.0002030983,0.000522517],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005225,0.00008877842,0.00002645931,0.0001804846,0.0002413671,0.0002341434,0.0001203518,0.0001713562,0.0001746918],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001674091,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000004523557,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001220045,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001013278,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985475,0.0006480559,0.0002315175,0.0002747504,0.00004950917,0.0002486512],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992983,0.0004852441,0.00008621717,0.00008327589,0.000009244692,0.00003765563],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000005921022,0.00007229869,0.9887648,0.00001006281,0.000008885848,0.000002354653,0.0001083716,0.0006024349,0.001693681,0.002494491,0.00007622589,0.006160493],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002310857,0.00009878977,0.9291902,0.000002717791,0.00001403654,0.000008367308,0.00006328477,0.02213867,0.00005122185,0.048066,0.00004188896,0.00009373092],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9722737,0.0001128525,0.02355448,0.0002871563,0.0003368504,0.0004067784,1.976653e-7,0.00003369736,0.002994289],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8877578,0.00003333001,0.1116566,0.0001611207,0.00001162405,0.0001797471,0.000002420414,0.00000418614,0.0001932244],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08810209,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5721195,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02685709219734648,"score_gpt":0.3373772146684792,"score_spread":0.3105201224711327,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}