{"id":"W2074806430","doi":"10.1057/fp.2008.2","title":"Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"French Politics","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":32,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Thriving; CONTEST; Presidential system; Popularity; Government (linguistics); Politics; Political science; Comparative politics; Presidential election; Political economy; Economics; Public administration; Sociology; Law; Social science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002929451,0.0006089464,0.001234691,0.001119002,0.00158909,0.005215341,0.001120926,0.003088701,0.007323343],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01052641,0.0006746128,0.0007064332,0.00112424,0.0006791655,0.001724562,0.000839278,0.001763024,0.0009200944],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.007296503,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003309831,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.3641627,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.4287022,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991432,0.0004738508,0.0000161414,0.0001504348,0.00004207563,0.0001741739],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.995133,0.003462208,0.0002808683,0.0001064013,0.0005744923,0.0004430056],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009723276,0.0003512283,0.09031425,0.0001220302,0.0004423062,0.0003157947,0.0006775665,0.7791588,0.0004537112,0.0533351,0.05304345,0.02081334],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001394374,0.0001035272,0.01359304,0.00004833925,0.0000862616,0.00002374367,0.001067974,0.9667128,0.000136673,0.01131413,0.006715674,0.0000583457],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9564204,0.0008757279,0.004669664,0.01617391,0.0002563769,0.00003131514,0.001215543,0.00008887042,0.02026821],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9903728,0.0003438623,0.000733069,0.0002843938,0.00009092755,0.00002424967,0.0006881291,0.00002902494,0.007433496],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3641627,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7240862,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06922650419249039,"score_gpt":0.3146881347914807,"score_spread":0.2454616305989903,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}