{"id":"W2076209930","doi":"10.1016/s0169-2070(03)00064-5","title":"The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Forecasting","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Consensus forecast; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008203852,0.0002733323,0.000879062,0.002552933,0.001709062,0.003557994,0.001280728,0.002950888,0.005641425],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1100486,0.000452654,0.0005063303,0.002139776,0.002946426,0.00641883,0.002128764,0.002714255,0.0006505303],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002008449,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001214453,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004224798,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002820523,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973334,0.001369745,0.0001184351,0.0005520407,0.000405391,0.0002209598],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9252759,0.05427169,0.005349884,0.005982678,0.006829043,0.002290751],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007001538,0.0001754363,0.04914799,0.0002868643,0.0002977139,0.0004344489,0.004827933,0.09655752,0.002755453,0.678825,0.01275448,0.153237],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006423534,0.00007122013,0.01196614,0.00005359668,0.00004975178,0.0001417604,0.00115351,0.1675354,0.0006976782,0.8128679,0.005344213,0.00005452373],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8594274,0.003594438,0.08308477,0.01637267,0.0005319091,0.00004134532,0.0004346376,0.0003256671,0.03618716],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936835,0.0003457523,0.004377764,0.0001563608,0.0001188992,0.00001359519,0.00008626406,0.00003674648,0.001181133],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008203852,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04338664,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09611602992980839,"score_gpt":0.2473993596999721,"score_spread":0.1512833297701637,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}