{"id":"W2078428890","doi":"10.2118/148867-ms","title":"Using Stochastic Simulation To Quantify Risk and Uncertainty in Shale Gas Prospecting and Development","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference","topic":"Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods","field":"Engineering","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Petroleum engineering; Unconventional oil; Prospecting; Natural gas; Shale gas; Oil shale; Permeability (electromagnetism); Regional geology; Tight gas; Geology; Drilling; Hydraulic fracturing; Environmental science; Metamorphic petrology; Hydrogeology; Mining engineering; Engineering; Waste management; Geotechnical engineering; Chemistry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002825212,0.0001217274,0.000125776,0.0002893182,0.00009634501,0.00004887888,0.00006306628,0.00005999163,0.00006579924],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001618384,0.0001383262,0.00001197484,0.0001536923,0.00002576613,0.00007573942,0.00001785782,0.0001331313,0.000003869392],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001571926,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009189379,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007767639,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02390685,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992343,0.00003167988,0.0002080306,0.0001885999,0.0001043038,0.0002331336],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994635,0.00009455457,0.00002458787,0.00008104785,0.00005389487,0.0002824439],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000005444525,0.00000206776,0.02242769,0.00002701274,0.000008439826,0.000003975805,0.002147079,0.971333,0.00003478406,0.0003145428,5.680816e-7,0.003695408],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001997379,0.000009877813,0.08160295,0.000088631,0.000003988222,0.000003348253,0.0002047544,0.9168355,0.00002228119,0.000430293,0.0004397356,0.0001588233],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.888029,0.0001014096,0.1113159,0.000005118778,0.00005804225,0.0001442361,0.000007904895,0.00003527309,0.0003031373],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9818893,0.0000031021,0.01802171,0.000007946908,0.00001861004,0.000009920629,0.00000449187,0.00001496403,0.00002997182],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.09386032,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9988397,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09822730726053236,"score_gpt":0.2860080866742815,"score_spread":0.1877807794137492,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}