{"id":"W2078511436","doi":"10.1002/cjs.5550360202","title":"Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Canadian Journal of Statistics","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Curtin University of Technology","keywords":"Econometrics; Semiparametric model; Series (stratigraphy); Conditional probability distribution; Statistics; Moment (physics); Extension (predicate logic); Computer science; Mathematics; Nonparametric statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003454408,0.0004382271,0.0009121764,0.001580141,0.0001462034,0.0008578941,0.001296275,0.0009798408,0.00142877],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01895059,0.0004219635,0.0007695613,0.0007402943,0.0004543902,0.001109231,0.0007306141,0.001086221,0.0003426913],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005797385,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003582418,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005756848,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0023567,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989298,0.0006824135,0.00003972505,0.000138648,0.0001530777,0.00005636535],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9904479,0.007951919,0.0006011407,0.0003177662,0.0005363355,0.0001450996],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001125772,0.00007474965,0.00948091,0.00003359162,0.00006768328,0.00005616666,0.0000433366,0.9402005,0.0004644503,0.01525907,0.0008959689,0.03331095],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002970011,0.000007131307,0.0004014554,0.000001949435,0.000003119606,0.000005839496,0.000002389874,0.9965605,0.00005478048,0.0028974,0.00005938918,0.000003043315],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1966136,0.0004978722,0.7991202,0.0007060901,0.00004634816,0.00005077124,0.0003471719,0.0008075963,0.001810388],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9595327,0.0002504285,0.03858408,0.00006570156,0.00005947574,0.00006224819,0.0003339236,0.00002907232,0.001082421],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.005756848,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01826882,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09095401882357076,"score_gpt":0.2946302585977734,"score_spread":0.2036762397742026,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}