{"id":"W2078591229","doi":"10.1007/s00024-010-0076-2","title":"Ergodicity and Earthquake Catalogs: Forecast Testing and Resulting Implications","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","topic":"earthquake and tectonic studies","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"U.S. Geological Survey; National Science Council; Southern California Earthquake Center; Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Ergodicity; Ergodic theory; Induced seismicity; Context (archaeology); Statistical physics; Measure (data warehouse); Computer science; Geology; Econometrics; Physics; Mathematics; Seismology; Data mining; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001244467,0.0001304561,0.0001519557,0.0000249225,0.0004981961,0.00008132741,0.00005401417,0.00005709545,0.00001284857],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000517567,0.0001085527,0.00001280466,0.0001388211,0.0001982769,0.00008301984,0.00003484945,0.0002258489,0.00001317628],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":3.960238e-7,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001457696,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005547088,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002553711,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992772,0.000006815898,0.0001267913,0.0002823213,0.000075445,0.0002314649],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993481,0.0003357013,0.00005703487,0.0001298559,0.00002677593,0.000102557],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000009153117,0.000009348444,0.3616017,0.00003030414,0.00001690034,0.000001144915,0.0004587085,0.000008335453,0.001017963,0.003413655,0.00005307755,0.6333797],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002072807,0.00003516541,0.985467,0.000006458457,0.00001766784,0.0000199834,0.0001160409,0.0002593953,0.00009895294,0.01268124,0.000946015,0.0001448102],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.987699,0.0002792996,0.00001077101,0.000230184,0.00004204963,0.0001425001,0.00006635297,0.00004351202,0.01148629],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998098,0.00006481435,0.001452724,0.000157591,0.0001592158,0.000004239184,0.00003221836,0.000003698285,0.00002749698],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6332349,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4426649,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01796846627596523,"score_gpt":0.2061465324181065,"score_spread":0.1881780661421412,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}