{"id":"W2078727016","doi":"10.1029/2011eo110005","title":"Mechanisms for Predictability of Polar Climate","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Eos","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Environmental science; Climate model; Climate change; Polar; Sea ice; Context (archaeology); Arctic; Global warming; Geography; Oceanography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002259087,0.00005173486,0.00008797055,0.00001549711,0.00005948801,0.000002740922,0.0001016399,0.00003342046,0.00125089],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000304953,0.00004072615,0.00004633623,0.00003699146,0.00004864165,0.00007185217,0.000006541454,0.00003596869,0.00002485315],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000001085506,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001586643,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005828987,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002453832,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995189,0.00001470298,0.0001237491,0.0001018908,0.00007763126,0.000163156],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997279,0.00005510974,0.00003289134,0.0001130995,0.00002513989,0.00004585955],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000144246,0.00004661796,0.9693955,0.000114613,0.00002173861,0.000001628329,0.001316707,0.0000167218,0.0001128517,0.007428516,0.00007620254,0.02132462],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002549928,0.0004596798,0.9536108,0.00001245634,0.00002969687,0.000005936834,0.0006215048,0.01349582,0.0006666486,0.03014497,0.0005597824,0.0001376516],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9522552,0.00002891556,0.03493453,0.00005110867,0.0004034163,0.0003210798,0.0006748423,0.00004129731,0.01128961],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9794022,0.00001030611,0.02042956,0.00005778017,0.00001859706,8.422598e-7,0.00004359699,0.000001649729,0.00003545584],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02714702,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996621,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01937340407792642,"score_gpt":0.2002980266002193,"score_spread":0.1809246225222929,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}