{"id":"W2086180499","doi":"10.1103/physreve.69.066121","title":"Measure of predictability","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Physical Review E","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Predictability; Attractor; Measure (data warehouse); Entropy (arrow of time); Mathematics; Statistical physics; Series (stratigraphy); Time series; Applied mathematics; Chaotic; Computer science; Statistics; Data mining; Mathematical analysis; Artificial intelligence; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002595702,0.000075756,0.0005862327,0.00002299216,0.00002186737,0.000005474321,0.0001268852,0.00001230918,0.0003298176],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001391218,0.00007001316,0.0002948514,0.0002631079,0.0000366805,0.00006510865,0.00003157967,0.00005357662,0.0003085958],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003239728,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001021563,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003319433,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001294747,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992337,0.000008831543,0.0004207959,0.0001925926,0.00003903302,0.0001050327],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993527,0.00001658644,0.0002118578,0.0003362764,0.00003563018,0.00004696492],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000003174825,0.0002630154,0.005389914,0.001441073,0.00009037883,4.722503e-7,0.00009341133,0.00004033955,0.00005663426,0.9898857,0.0002708353,0.002465025],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009111371,0.0002578241,0.05177448,0.002058542,0.0001427593,0.000003382718,0.00002221078,0.0005723932,0.0003078259,0.7385475,0.204807,0.0005949415],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4527166,0.3701493,0.007265164,0.004598477,0.000311995,0.001251678,0.0003670148,0.0001078957,0.1632319],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979084,0.001751026,0.00009540906,0.000100418,0.00006907769,0.00001337567,0.000003677573,0.000006343596,0.00005231646],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5451918,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3966477,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03689529735414628,"score_gpt":0.2530460413923126,"score_spread":0.2161507440381663,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}