{"id":"W2089380382","doi":"10.1515/1935-1690.2436","title":"News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The B E Journal of Macroeconomics","topic":"Economic Growth and Productivity","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa","funders":"","keywords":"Bust; Economics; Boom; Business cycle; Recession; Productivity; Investment (military); Consumption (sociology); Monetary economics; Stock (firearms); Macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Econometrics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005669201,0.0001902879,0.0005560897,0.0001028302,0.0002351343,0.00008506481,0.0004581585,0.00006555862,0.00009748125],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002480367,0.0001286022,0.0001588732,0.00007522864,0.0004174268,0.0007428182,0.0001578329,0.0003941097,0.0001385673],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001411638,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004100017,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001647176,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005178206,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998401,0.0001144969,0.0008840879,0.0001848711,0.00002887299,0.0003866776],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978389,0.0002594326,0.001197331,0.0005089312,0.00003060987,0.0001647809],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009536624,0.0003328837,0.4577176,0.00006010455,0.0005536607,0.000001301713,0.006470532,0.0006259666,0.00004970047,0.51521,0.01048568,0.00753894],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.006287056,0.0002489355,0.178571,0.00002438082,0.0001839575,0.0009427936,0.001182147,0.001133742,0.001160343,0.4168055,0.3925974,0.0008626472],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9614045,0.01330508,0.000282413,0.01275738,0.001330842,0.0002889801,0.00002615401,0.000008199008,0.01059643],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994957,0.00160216,0.0002666592,0.001385821,0.001385216,0.000006352382,9.340691e-7,0.00002454734,0.0003712841],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3821117,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5244246,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02265269433764514,"score_gpt":0.2085584155083675,"score_spread":0.1859057211707223,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}