{"id":"W2092966404","doi":"10.1057/thr.2009.23","title":"Modelling and Forecasting Tourist Flows to Barbados Using Structural Time Series Models","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Tourism and Hospitality Research","topic":"Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":41,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Univariate; Tourism; Multivariate statistics; Econometrics; Series (stratigraphy); Benchmark (surveying); Economics; Time series; Work (physics); Statistics; Geography; Mathematics; Engineering; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006166635,0.0004341309,0.0003538956,0.0009718701,0.0003380874,0.0008847551,0.0004978079,0.0004612441,0.001183665],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002863311,0.000280589,0.0004556946,0.0008995399,0.0002903302,0.0005404212,0.0004623475,0.000640657,0.0001842485],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001421042,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001158774,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.235428,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2048267,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999837,0.00006308713,0.000008479062,0.00003516844,0.00002256783,0.0000336867],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993488,0.0003402625,0.0001776852,0.00002830524,0.00007181294,0.00003300112],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007886846,0.00006122876,0.04953493,0.00004201522,0.00006323856,0.00008617643,0.0001909938,0.9325862,0.00040612,0.004697799,0.0005826376,0.01166971],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007086095,0.00002123729,0.01306788,0.000008245674,0.00001440815,0.000005530997,0.0001013969,0.9852498,0.0001010924,0.001126744,0.000290399,0.00000623878],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9820222,0.0002214264,0.01559685,0.0003342787,0.00001470185,0.00001921326,0.0003935683,0.0000629659,0.001334846],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953032,0.0002340483,0.003134973,0.000008763525,0.00001086545,0.00001155446,0.0005353838,0.000006386669,0.000754902],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.235428,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4681154,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1343611460503101,"score_gpt":0.3866595204456003,"score_spread":0.2522983743952902,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}