{"id":"W2098180267","doi":"10.5547/01956574.34.4.5","title":"OPEC “Fair Price” Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Energy Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Oil-storage trade; Futures contract; Economics; Crude oil; Futures market; Mid price; Market price; Financial economics; Price discovery; Price level; Monetary economics; Fair value; Crack spread; Law of one price; Oil price; Microeconomics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002049138,0.0001122912,0.0002631523,0.00005848901,0.0002313912,0.0001384057,0.0004005203,0.00004515233,0.001689195],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001162534,0.00006584961,0.00008845508,0.0001153539,0.0001711614,0.0001859147,0.0001308553,0.0001957244,0.000009281238],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004430569,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002543588,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004192157,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001815598,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989365,0.00008227598,0.0005477166,0.0001484282,0.00006265344,0.0002224127],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988966,0.0001286242,0.0005447826,0.000299105,0.00006296716,0.00006793988],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006205104,0.0003884658,0.1151478,0.0001102532,0.0008421872,0.000004089421,0.002321771,0.0001055058,0.000167475,0.8085537,0.02245753,0.04928069],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004683373,0.0001394614,0.1825849,0.00007015975,0.00003632297,0.0001209896,0.0003606531,0.164515,0.00005439177,0.4325024,0.2144205,0.0005118151],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6468097,0.00402979,0.006911732,0.005418548,0.0005966622,0.0001649766,0.00002887688,0.00001170872,0.336028],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9864373,0.001804939,0.0003131232,0.0002881703,0.0001346427,0.00002108823,0.000001070395,0.00001210702,0.01098761],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3760512,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9992234,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01098133976156986,"score_gpt":0.1849267898175019,"score_spread":0.173945450055932,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}