{"id":"W2098591116","doi":"10.1257/aer.20141141","title":"Perceiving Prospects Properly","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Review","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":88,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Curse; Economics; Action (physics); Perception; Mathematical economics; Noise (video); Microeconomics; Econometrics; Winner's curse; Feature (linguistics); Key (lock); Computer science; Artificial intelligence; Psychology; Computer security; Common value auction; Physics; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004917078,0.0001712684,0.0006857013,0.00008038992,0.00005934722,0.00003628642,0.0002746091,0.00002056728,0.002813685],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003315155,0.0001272403,0.0001671927,0.0001122119,0.0001551265,0.0002640257,0.00004495164,0.00006027733,0.008086843],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001905345,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003460265,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008507511,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006456846,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984692,0.000007008849,0.0007148991,0.0004727682,0.00001924931,0.0003168709],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987474,0.0000235641,0.0005807361,0.0005282146,0.00001352381,0.0001065652],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000009975356,0.00008159214,0.2645776,0.0007305884,0.0001747838,0.00001091382,0.0002278306,0.0000125295,0.0000313855,0.2499138,0.0329874,0.4512416],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001757062,0.00009184192,0.04503135,0.0006543656,0.00001075877,0.00001414714,0.000007841351,0.0001591263,0.000009342089,0.001210535,0.9522552,0.0003797864],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4252777,0.1723942,0.002067182,0.01941987,0.001484938,0.002001712,0.0002041942,0.0002862851,0.3768639],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8512431,0.1413684,0.0001927614,0.001907985,0.0001643863,0.00005192545,0.000002723815,0.00003270467,0.005036042],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9192678,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9980979,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02283799274999525,"score_gpt":0.2324071389899997,"score_spread":0.2095691462400044,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}