{"id":"W2099073499","doi":"10.1073/pnas.0904946106","title":"Contingencies and compounded rare perturbations dictate sudden distributional shifts during periods of gradual climate change","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","topic":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":132,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Climate change; Limit (mathematics); Pace; Environmental science; Tipping point (physics); Intertidal zone; Climatology; Ecology; Geography; Biology; Geology; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007074458,0.00009687566,0.0002461028,0.000485332,0.0004322057,0.0006348178,0.0002449504,0.0002632968,0.0009931249],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003489534,0.00017175,0.0002202568,0.0003916023,0.0007182751,0.0006703032,0.0007041298,0.0005130938,0.000134039],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000321618,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002278019,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002520873,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008886381,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996679,0.00008748367,0.00002898902,0.0001097838,0.00004774247,0.00005813663],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986086,0.0004549374,0.000427342,0.0002617199,0.0001126683,0.0001346923],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000178027,0.00003889986,0.9499694,0.00004268617,0.0001323339,0.0002764382,0.0004739604,0.01223742,0.02191618,0.00158675,0.0003843862,0.01276358],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004139869,0.00003191335,0.989213,0.000005819052,0.00001669058,0.0001599058,0.0004453214,0.007072961,0.001070684,0.001450759,0.0005140969,0.00001465613],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.998091,0.00002555674,0.000987752,0.00004033052,0.000003533289,0.000003410423,0.000131744,0.00001445842,0.0007020976],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995291,0.00001357105,0.0002957688,0.00001033951,0.000002149651,0.000003681449,0.0001074959,0.000002751024,0.00003518863],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002520873,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.005012393,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02443007746698561,"score_gpt":0.2612347202710161,"score_spread":0.2368046428040305,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}