{"id":"W2099954488","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2014.949342","title":"Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Business and Economic Statistics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":329,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Consensus forecast; Oil price; Econometrics; Replicate; Forecast verification; Crude oil; Economics; Computer science; Forecast error; Statistics; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004157065,0.0009613718,0.001288641,0.002892693,0.0004932941,0.00184931,0.0008452712,0.0008866548,0.001039215],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01562027,0.0007347077,0.001138995,0.001754144,0.0004686539,0.002770036,0.0009756074,0.001592598,0.0002707805],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008264317,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009550866,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006755476,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006208708,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979059,0.0008919587,0.0001499513,0.0003505705,0.0005903867,0.0001112242],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9931369,0.00452334,0.0006786391,0.0005931651,0.0008882664,0.000179762],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004759335,0.0001068596,0.02484738,0.00007709375,0.0005400632,0.0001604112,0.0001344779,0.8357348,0.001551272,0.003837299,0.001196569,0.1313378],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001735929,0.00005730633,0.003043611,0.000007372865,0.00007707895,0.00003268518,0.00002812732,0.9922104,0.0004483529,0.003700603,0.0003575672,0.00001956638],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4862133,0.001071797,0.5033746,0.001526039,0.0001516827,0.000165517,0.001172596,0.0006582589,0.005666256],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9251684,0.000324496,0.07277359,0.00007136774,0.0001294564,0.00006002138,0.0008818706,0.0000281479,0.0005627117],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.006755476,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02198493,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06214540960629675,"score_gpt":0.2351025842778073,"score_spread":0.1729571746715105,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}