{"id":"W2100105729","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9256.2012.01438.x","title":"The Incumbency Advantage in the US Congress: A Roller-Coaster Relationship","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Politics","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa","funders":"","keywords":"Roller coaster; Margin (machine learning); Sitting; Politics; Political science; Political economy; Demographic economics; Economics; Law; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002487717,0.0001143143,0.0004279503,0.002484846,0.002597456,0.004526201,0.0003938774,0.001209639,0.02074814],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008629925,0.0001643007,0.0003470266,0.002946394,0.002402534,0.00176715,0.002071332,0.001761026,0.001383252],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001700499,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001399001,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02306321,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04801409,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986965,0.0002948167,0.00004319114,0.0002135237,0.0002868057,0.0004651526],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9914049,0.003054305,0.002262878,0.0004066936,0.001055558,0.001815718],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001045959,0.0007195246,0.7334646,0.0001113494,0.0002275863,0.00065233,0.01211559,0.001006102,0.001447656,0.1358952,0.02127742,0.09203674],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004957368,0.0001964743,0.9537316,0.00006741138,0.0000591204,0.0000983612,0.01033958,0.0004850567,0.0003173174,0.01433227,0.02029246,0.0000307753],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8967302,0.00172699,0.0002844798,0.01263144,0.00007590711,0.00002412754,0.0002615861,0.00002153694,0.08824378],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9960908,0.000245051,0.00004027027,0.0006276022,0.00008364079,0.00000508433,0.00006740272,0.000007752365,0.002832372],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02306321,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06940943,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06812847352712885,"score_gpt":0.3897941806963044,"score_spread":0.3216657071691755,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}