{"id":"W2100333913","doi":"10.1002/grl.50317","title":"Multi‐system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":55,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Sea ice; Climate Forecast System; Anomaly (physics); Environmental science; Arctic; Precipitation; Arctic ice pack; Forecast skill; The arctic; Meteorology; Geology; Oceanography; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001006351,0.0005069485,0.0003819653,0.0003384686,0.0003202659,0.0006018319,0.000370269,0.0004205011,0.0008389301],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002335858,0.0003226296,0.0004892614,0.0002592981,0.0001758128,0.000836649,0.0006738739,0.0004830534,0.0001050318],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006904576,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008434823,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02736584,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02650209,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999792,0.00005927945,0.00001757378,0.00005677026,0.0000465938,0.00002781399],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990749,0.00043959,0.0001291076,0.00008278324,0.0002032573,0.00007027023],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001403977,0.00005729205,0.01764351,0.00002340882,0.0001210253,0.00003075341,0.00003139899,0.9689021,0.002093746,0.0002169613,0.0002521144,0.01048731],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001168003,0.00003673584,0.006803718,0.000002333472,0.00001640592,0.000004015478,0.00001209616,0.9922292,0.0006373548,0.0001557522,0.00008409838,0.000006627352],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9840223,0.0001506517,0.01248862,0.0001548007,0.00005006901,0.00002686006,0.0003614963,0.0001880999,0.002557125],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9973313,0.00003046908,0.002224911,0.000009131828,0.000009331103,0.00000946614,0.0001890935,0.000006394369,0.0001900634],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02736584,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05441308,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02416450850325247,"score_gpt":0.260489828980025,"score_spread":0.2363253204767726,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}