{"id":"W2102342434","doi":"10.1111/j.1755-053x.2011.01144.x","title":"Resolving the Presidential Puzzle","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Financial Management","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":56,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Saint Mary's University; Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Presidential system; Economics; Democracy; Stock (firearms); Differential (mechanical device); Financial economics; Default risk; Politics; Stock market; Monetary economics; Econometrics; Political science; Actuarial science; Credit risk; Law; History","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004466728,0.0001599344,0.0002079704,0.0001226601,0.0003442554,0.00008911975,0.0004711526,0.00006092715,0.001105457],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005434117,0.0001419648,0.0001154641,0.0002389847,0.00009735927,0.0002643727,0.0002089428,0.0001184213,0.0009441627],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004298115,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000009251154,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004771904,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00007910858,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987499,0.00001493199,0.0004519807,0.0003603647,0.00005595094,0.0003668393],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992899,0.00001198772,0.0001928622,0.0004480078,0.0000148895,0.00004231421],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002367041,0.00005904106,0.002953934,0.00002480111,0.00001874411,0.00001618846,0.0004135088,0.00000211142,8.705893e-7,0.9749187,0.019618,0.001950461],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002391922,0.00005384238,0.325371,0.00001549461,0.000009415348,9.171884e-7,0.00007064584,0.00004069621,0.00003185831,0.2411837,0.4327872,0.0001960422],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.02231592,0.001226696,0.003802696,0.0004438777,0.001551814,0.0005612771,0.00002557522,0.00008774628,0.9699844],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9873887,0.0003438691,0.001748342,0.0007769513,0.000297586,0.0001443674,0.000005226626,0.00002585191,0.009269124],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9650728,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998337,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04383946173431248,"score_gpt":0.1895039265125776,"score_spread":0.1456644647782651,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}