{"id":"W2102539672","doi":"10.12927/hcpol.2013.22881","title":"Residential Long-Term Care Capacity Planning: The Shortcomings of Ratio-Based Forecasts","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Healthcare policy","topic":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Health Canada","keywords":"Capacity planning; Term (time); Population; Capacity utilization; Operations research; Welfare economics; Econometrics; Humanities; Economics; Operations management; Demography; Mathematics; Sociology; Physics; Art; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001878624,0.0001517857,0.0002703977,0.0003979677,0.0003500667,0.00009215344,0.0004839154,0.0001210946,0.00004144109],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000945662,0.00009962928,0.000168214,0.0008044122,0.0001542361,0.0002551639,0.00005693954,0.0002033348,0.00002652782],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007032397,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003119522,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003722987,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001031833,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969605,0.000389499,0.0007451951,0.0002711669,0.001146525,0.0004871118],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975833,0.0005915639,0.0003950011,0.0006580235,0.0005455937,0.0002264625],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001238803,0.00006590016,0.903467,0.0001644299,0.00001853522,0.000002501359,0.03033938,0.0008133797,0.000188778,0.01304504,0.001532772,0.05023842],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005572279,0.000161958,0.9814032,0.0001505569,0.00003200605,0.00001965241,0.006388136,0.003885946,0.00160327,0.004621704,0.0009004514,0.0002758921],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9838663,0.001011298,0.007277508,0.00607541,0.000431895,0.0003008853,0.00005156262,0.00004195233,0.0009431477],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9981943,0.00001345012,0.0002940398,0.0009032632,0.0004685062,0.00002202232,0.00002239333,0.00001487475,0.0000671805],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07793622,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5628068,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2477984864350158,"score_gpt":0.4594079315242051,"score_spread":0.2116094450891893,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}