{"id":"W2103852424","doi":"10.1142/s201013921550010x","title":"Asset Return Predictability in a Heterogeneous Agent Equilibrium Model","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Quarterly Journal of Finance","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Economics; Portfolio; Econometrics; General equilibrium theory; Consumption (sociology); Asset (computer security); Portfolio optimization; Simple (philosophy); Microeconomics; Computer science; Financial economics; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001334771,0.0001835284,0.0005683284,0.0002178837,0.00002610613,0.00007693603,0.000355432,0.0001147874,0.000024858],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001102633,0.000187811,0.0001658211,0.0002181826,0.00008403277,0.0007103728,0.00002092376,0.0002778648,0.00003439112],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002226044,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001644006,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0000610967,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003331545,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979791,0.00003808324,0.001265661,0.0002670459,0.0001017823,0.0003483387],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986058,0.00002631733,0.0008305173,0.0003056988,0.0001058412,0.0001257696],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002757543,0.003930445,0.4607951,0.0004475308,0.000288101,0.001238657,0.0255188,0.080035,0.0006606967,0.3384832,0.0629917,0.02285323],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00478849,0.00594885,0.07507529,0.0002458485,0.00001775641,0.000243794,0.0003969258,0.1381503,0.0001840661,0.7478397,0.02613818,0.0009706813],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9863891,0.004373756,0.001915556,0.0006005752,0.0006750015,0.0001423723,0.00006446124,0.00001097184,0.005828231],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9976817,0.0001186858,0.001679084,0.0001515226,0.0001287841,0.000007626927,0.000002241634,0.00001731467,0.0002130793],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4093566,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7658712,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05197903041761251,"score_gpt":0.2403870964044266,"score_spread":0.1884080659868141,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}