{"id":"W2104399364","doi":"10.1017/s1049096509250359","title":"THE ECONOMY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 2008","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PS Political Science & Politics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Presidential system; Novelty; Quarter (Canadian coin); Presidential election; Outcome (game theory); Political science; Political economy; Economics; History; Law; Politics; Psychology; Mathematical economics; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002003411,0.0001561053,0.0002944173,0.0001497377,0.0006134468,0.0004523008,0.0006317549,0.00006387998,0.00003497547],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006979714,0.0001097944,0.00008057745,0.0001657288,0.002399056,0.0004604837,0.0001025083,0.0002352892,0.0001644936],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002506729,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009008268,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004630869,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001277328,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9972844,0.00003171221,0.0006287507,0.0003845418,0.00005125569,0.001619402],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986665,0.0003355491,0.0001181074,0.0004390516,0.00001352974,0.0004272667],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000008775499,0.00001653751,0.00601706,0.000001969021,0.000003751771,0.000001123582,0.0001867204,0.00002777508,8.363574e-7,0.9932846,0.0002677277,0.0001830628],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006371276,0.0000392459,0.139727,0.000003735881,0.000003611571,0.00001861392,0.00007363995,0.01525899,0.00004018146,0.8307326,0.01330679,0.0001584739],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7534228,0.001093925,0.0001765088,0.06492089,0.0003886404,0.0003874388,0.00005294619,0.00002827471,0.1795286],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9931874,0.0000616906,0.00006301,0.005492367,0.0003108518,0.000008130267,8.808492e-7,0.000006707898,0.0008690219],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2397646,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8839422,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03487263621796084,"score_gpt":0.2510840813576559,"score_spread":0.216211445139695,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}