{"id":"W2105235435","doi":"10.5194/esd-4-439-2013","title":"Do GCMs predict the climate ... or macroweather?","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Earth System Dynamics","topic":"Tree-ring climate responses","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":43,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University; Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Climate model; Environmental science; General Circulation Model; Climate change; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric sciences; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005678157,0.0002329741,0.0002554633,0.00007482249,0.0003669529,0.000370509,0.000501164,0.0001057527,0.002344478],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005591739,0.0001257385,0.00009501734,0.0002802339,0.0001139137,0.0002573808,0.0000377293,0.0001882006,0.005733757],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001460317,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005786573,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001798436,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007323098,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980126,0.0002482872,0.0003756669,0.0003286699,0.0004056932,0.00062907],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985773,0.0004743604,0.0001502133,0.0005779152,0.00005685514,0.0001633394],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001809926,0.00002085365,0.9217196,0.0003423969,0.00007831002,0.00009161454,0.0004546945,0.00378551,0.00001562992,0.001202088,0.0006409569,0.07146732],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002701717,0.000147823,0.6982595,0.0001553566,0.00002351889,0.000251208,0.001861264,0.2962585,0.000006207636,0.00003098074,0.002491957,0.0002434825],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9722387,0.0004062311,0.0001629094,0.0003425182,0.0008825584,0.0007394367,0.0004823592,0.0003773426,0.024368],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972838,0.00008105212,0.0004098611,0.00007576748,0.0001553437,0.00001056976,0.0000689881,0.00001425077,0.001900356],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.292473,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9985675,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01112096958222846,"score_gpt":0.209830558975804,"score_spread":0.1987095893935756,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}