{"id":"W2106247207","doi":"","title":"What Does the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey Say About Local Activity? ∗","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Value (mathematics); Stock market; Survey data collection; Variety (cybernetics); Business; Marketing; Economics; Geography; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006192047,0.0002239709,0.0005586825,0.0001479885,0.0003666868,0.0001912219,0.0004247547,0.0001252064,0.001474563],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000760872,0.0001486853,0.0002262285,0.0003777115,0.0003370702,0.0009139778,0.00009986734,0.0001671205,0.00163073],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009877338,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004725935,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01069061,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004666184,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985146,0.00004425828,0.0005392483,0.0005175556,0.00005220775,0.0003321182],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988018,0.000202306,0.0003027744,0.0005121703,0.00008070694,0.0001002146],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004478479,0.0008561856,0.6920694,0.0000616196,0.001476065,0.00004921591,0.002181282,0.005576415,0.00002166632,0.2286503,0.04444444,0.02416556],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003984277,0.00002456126,0.9275926,0.000009216947,0.0000111337,0.00001471503,0.0001786789,0.01124321,0.00003792239,0.007272165,0.05277337,0.0004439323],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.888406,0.002598875,0.05508781,0.03488395,0.001797959,0.000310785,0.0001325872,0.00008797774,0.01669409],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9761943,0.004529343,0.00004022802,0.001494436,0.0002186815,0.00001961008,0.00003075414,0.00002465571,0.01744803],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2355232,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9994382,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05026692720109783,"score_gpt":0.2175855076491986,"score_spread":0.1673185804481007,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}