{"id":"W2113116462","doi":"10.3386/w14585","title":"The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Culture, Economy, and Development Studies","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":82,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council; Vetenskapsrådet; London School of Economics and Political Science; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research","keywords":"Spanish Civil War; Polity; Incidence (geometry); Civil Conflict; Political science; Economics; Political economy; Law; Mathematics; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01010101,0.0007160119,0.0009043136,0.008003869,0.0006948198,0.003725623,0.002306524,0.002123482,0.008357699],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07233673,0.0006704039,0.0006440532,0.009918895,0.007144521,0.005493678,0.002230773,0.002442931,0.001110565],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001295503,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000809911,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007040516,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002724462,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9947588,0.002184177,0.0004711594,0.001345702,0.0009854762,0.0002547005],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7346383,0.2235736,0.0279444,0.005285083,0.007181372,0.001377183],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004609986,0.0003406836,0.7986585,0.002275744,0.001347168,0.0003129357,0.001654549,0.005316289,0.00009301197,0.06846042,0.005238561,0.115841],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001513119,0.0007329289,0.8041437,0.005729843,0.001089552,0.001476643,0.009080789,0.01489482,0.0009876804,0.1180659,0.04339628,0.0002505381],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6337001,0.2421413,0.02177842,0.03006003,0.001106638,0.0001084204,0.003685829,0.0001178298,0.06730147],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9331005,0.06080605,0.001906525,0.00128391,0.001190242,0.00003134557,0.001180239,0.00002472104,0.0004764987],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01010101,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05341989,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3482841321654395,"score_gpt":0.5061264418783303,"score_spread":0.1578423097128908,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}