{"id":"W2116633449","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1621044","title":"Are You Trading Predictably?","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Business; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001437963,0.000222658,0.000414217,0.0004341738,0.0005362772,0.002101354,0.0003676137,0.001772094,0.01806105],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02197997,0.0001427065,0.0002959831,0.0004826933,0.0006337678,0.003350771,0.0003735322,0.002100182,0.004553392],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001971664,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002587087,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008114746,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001036373,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994776,0.0001368186,0.00003858616,0.00009172691,0.000134339,0.0001208942],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.987294,0.006039133,0.003964902,0.0006815596,0.0008816256,0.001138731],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001690117,0.0007697102,0.6664894,0.0001951317,0.0004152113,0.001151646,0.001061515,0.002152033,0.0011092,0.02633655,0.07610192,0.2225275],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002154734,0.00110813,0.6080791,0.0005432965,0.0007179001,0.00636306,0.00593185,0.03007031,0.004146365,0.2343212,0.1082519,0.0002515737],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7769709,0.007075428,0.006362589,0.117227,0.003687592,0.00003981934,0.002963452,0.0002580704,0.08541508],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9838054,0.001603809,0.0003290277,0.003703642,0.001063554,0.0000154375,0.0004011267,0.00002497337,0.009052848],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01806105,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06042022,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01530521368162429,"score_gpt":0.2006052562133444,"score_spread":0.1853000425317201,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}