{"id":"W2118769121","doi":"10.1890/13-2366.1","title":"Climate‐induced changes in host tree–insect phenology may drive ecological state‐shift in boreal forests","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ecology","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":209,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal; Université du Québec à Chicoutimi; Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts (Québec); Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service","funders":"","keywords":"Black spruce; Spruce budworm; Ecology; Taiga; Disturbance (geology); Deciduous; Phenology; Balsam; Geography; Biology; Tortricidae; Lepidoptera genitalia; Botany","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004673031,0.0001227371,0.0001495909,0.000353272,0.0002949405,0.0005217507,0.0001600289,0.0001972826,0.001155741],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007251975,0.0001286663,0.0002325744,0.0002882707,0.0002199735,0.0002960042,0.0002044394,0.0002308159,0.00014019],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003463574,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001983218,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01105968,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03459866,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999851,0.00003664405,0.00001229777,0.00005297325,0.00001483459,0.00003230938],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994355,0.00006831004,0.0002954034,0.00004513589,0.00005704721,0.00009860211],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001285958,0.00009992519,0.9829799,0.00002903073,0.00009773823,0.00006672533,0.0002756277,0.0003476307,0.008623198,0.0001079691,0.0004310314,0.006812663],"study_design_scores_gemma":[7.914983e-7,0.00001080035,0.9996141,0.000001020367,0.000003608888,0.00001264367,0.00004047138,0.0001460093,0.00004560598,0.00002104426,0.0001025089,0.000001345872],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9986643,0.0001316202,0.0001487903,0.00006825876,0.000007937567,0.000005961473,0.0002532013,0.00001405451,0.000705889],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994996,0.00004863289,0.00009392374,0.0000402251,0.000005811319,0.000005041051,0.0001885513,0.000002744143,0.0001154974],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01105968,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0219906,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01113027388775199,"score_gpt":0.2309346059830698,"score_spread":0.2198043320953178,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}