{"id":"W2120514973","doi":"10.1029/2005gl023089","title":"Reply to comment by von Storch and Zorita on “Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance”","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Tree-ring climate responses","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Guelph","funders":"","keywords":"Spurious relationship; Principal component analysis; Geology; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006595514,0.0001907332,0.0002337198,0.0001582238,0.0003378292,0.0001921548,0.0002883869,0.00004238723,0.0001238556],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000244486,0.0001635887,0.00003146648,0.0002014553,0.0003381606,0.0001368639,0.00009996829,0.000493521,0.0005433271],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004389474,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003127484,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008138225,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003639877,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969762,0.000385477,0.0001989015,0.0005955725,0.001008532,0.0008352921],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974689,0.001560023,0.0000310408,0.0003354406,0.00004174524,0.0005628228],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003924589,0.0005959158,0.09759919,0.0001915623,0.0001270416,0.0002893156,0.002457402,0.000731396,0.09532586,0.0004140536,0.5558858,0.2424579],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006421805,0.0009973248,0.5955565,0.0000668959,0.000007392599,0.000005995494,0.00009141642,0.001949981,0.001210419,0.00008257819,0.3990752,0.0003141949],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9231471,0.0001587015,0.00001788103,0.07580016,0.0000563106,0.0004174167,0.0001453966,0.00004224405,0.0002147446],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9889376,0.00006287324,0.000525773,0.009899332,0.0002414816,0.000009668687,0.00005713578,0.000009921481,0.0002562442],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4979573,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9984667,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03913214199795845,"score_gpt":0.2996840917098638,"score_spread":0.2605519497119053,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}