{"id":"W2126871687","doi":"10.1111/1467-9248.12008","title":"Polls and the Vote in Britain","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Political Studies","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":26,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Political science; Outcome (game theory); General election; Presidential election; Spoilt vote; Politics; Period (music); Opinion poll; Primary election; Presidential system; Group voting ticket; Public administration; Law; Economics; Public opinion","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004220152,0.0001241426,0.0005055529,0.002519181,0.001153843,0.002356745,0.0003270866,0.0006194609,0.007761689],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02187394,0.0003069262,0.0002774399,0.004814845,0.001315216,0.0007691119,0.001627773,0.0007743248,0.001248713],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001318464,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005938692,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02569183,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04094214,"domain_scores_codex":[0.995363,0.002624477,0.000244758,0.000313636,0.0007958229,0.0006581924],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9895636,0.005333079,0.002338463,0.000624233,0.001364317,0.0007763681],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001346804,0.0002439042,0.8122357,0.0003834225,0.0002476551,0.0003518718,0.01714479,0.001080779,0.001662289,0.03368599,0.01341224,0.1182045],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002088456,0.0000853744,0.980782,0.00005891674,0.00002004174,0.00004188801,0.002297382,0.0003619623,0.0001560863,0.001731304,0.01442776,0.00001652436],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9394141,0.002115756,0.0006985464,0.002493047,0.0001366808,0.00002748327,0.0008019811,0.00003645236,0.05427593],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9934618,0.0003003106,0.0001485445,0.0001410478,0.00005931354,0.00001477604,0.000447049,0.00002017989,0.005406883],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02569183,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05108458,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07004385815879804,"score_gpt":0.396802872988706,"score_spread":0.326759014829908,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}