{"id":"W2127795025","doi":"10.1007/s11698-018-0173-5","title":"From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Cliometrica","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; National Agricultural Statistics Service; University of Pennsylvania; University of New South Wales; University of Cambridge; U.S. Geological Survey; Johns Hopkins University; Harvard University","keywords":"Bust; Commodity; Boom; Economics; Contango; Volatility (finance); Monetary economics; Short run; Financial economics; Economy; Futures contract; Market economy; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009122155,0.0001090751,0.0003955648,0.001383933,0.0000446964,0.00005105682,0.0005366851,0.0001131499,0.0009608858],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005342059,0.00009585229,0.00007940904,0.003648673,0.00006351083,0.0001138404,0.0001274596,0.0001710827,0.0001903969],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000579153,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001114518,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01665252,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000407558,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998742,0.00003681512,0.0006018909,0.0003133346,0.00005230357,0.0002536001],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984885,0.0006023648,0.0002632783,0.0005349603,0.00004238603,0.00006853835],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001645995,0.0002057911,0.9793046,0.00001569203,0.00002160754,0.000002134962,0.0007206468,0.000004141938,0.000006501704,0.01269402,0.00296636,0.004042007],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002152427,0.00007338029,0.9624181,0.000004243509,0.000002633087,4.639533e-7,0.0001257148,0.005138734,0.000003612203,0.0265011,0.005405448,0.0001112587],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9606956,0.0003560737,0.001083829,0.00106955,0.0002003212,0.0003317351,0.0002329285,0.000009137774,0.03602084],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9984813,0.0001153588,0.0009038698,0.0002605109,0.00006662573,0.00003828067,0.00002542083,0.000009091041,0.00009954403],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03778571,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999524,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04047466568569371,"score_gpt":0.2622521894981979,"score_spread":0.2217775238125042,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}