{"id":"W2127795025","doi":"10.1007/s11698-018-0173-5","title":"From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Cliometrica","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; National Agricultural Statistics Service; University of Pennsylvania; University of New South Wales; University of Cambridge; U.S. Geological Survey; Johns Hopkins University; Harvard University","keywords":"Bust; Commodity; Boom; Economics; Contango; Volatility (finance); Monetary economics; Short run; Financial economics; Economy; Futures contract; Market economy; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008499447,0.000197189,0.0002909498,0.003567225,0.000579935,0.002498052,0.0004422355,0.000423156,0.002403209],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004590267,0.0002227357,0.0003429987,0.005713007,0.001548903,0.004098313,0.001359668,0.001002489,0.0002651648],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009454668,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003573624,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006931243,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0108222,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995628,0.00007876047,0.00005699477,0.0001190722,0.0001163322,0.00006609012],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971732,0.0006989985,0.001401306,0.0002470938,0.00032501,0.0001544531],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003644647,0.00004089686,0.849676,0.000301024,0.0002670625,0.000965753,0.00509043,0.003930321,0.001499037,0.06625874,0.006996993,0.06460939],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001742086,0.00008881075,0.9106002,0.0002511851,0.00006276029,0.0005963765,0.005504803,0.005908363,0.0007170147,0.04273086,0.03344228,0.00007992117],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9653644,0.004763493,0.00576778,0.002200707,0.00006607238,0.00002696854,0.002891263,0.00006833983,0.0188511],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961271,0.001010881,0.0006694386,0.0001756332,0.00005242081,0.00001317714,0.001354096,0.00002475175,0.0005726134],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006931243,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01378179,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04047466568569371,"score_gpt":0.2622521894981979,"score_spread":0.2217775238125042,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}