{"id":"W2127871426","doi":"10.1175/jcli3912.1","title":"Evidence of Decadal Climate Prediction Skill Resulting from Changes in Anthropogenic Forcing","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Climate","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":50,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; University of Victoria","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Forcing (mathematics); Anomaly (physics); Radiative forcing; Environmental science; Climate model; Probabilistic logic; Climate change; Geology; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004697451,0.0001658053,0.0002158095,0.0004657597,0.0002251373,0.001105685,0.0003998324,0.0004450232,0.002549554],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03856006,0.0002590352,0.0002553283,0.00042367,0.0007434548,0.0008189759,0.001010913,0.0008489799,0.0002874624],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003971298,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000414218,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006269347,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005554653,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990866,0.0003126109,0.00006550144,0.0002270371,0.0002056156,0.0001027103],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9618653,0.02547653,0.005107385,0.004117397,0.002699635,0.0007338712],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008271532,0.0001295086,0.8814676,0.00006667017,0.0003362447,0.0002992975,0.0005692413,0.07594027,0.003759699,0.003006026,0.0007789988,0.03281935],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000740433,0.0001576181,0.8418155,0.00002452856,0.00007481407,0.0001813225,0.0002025513,0.1484029,0.00243399,0.005509654,0.001089227,0.00003383035],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9945713,0.0001149863,0.002685816,0.0004490388,0.00001340968,0.000004786682,0.0002380102,0.00008028484,0.001842319],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994239,0.00002830817,0.0002147879,0.00002800881,0.000008651151,0.000001604373,0.0001608692,0.00000762898,0.0001262401],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006269347,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0248428,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02634118792210355,"score_gpt":0.281920256624266,"score_spread":0.2555790687021624,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}