{"id":"W2128594499","doi":"10.1007/s11229-013-0377-y","title":"Iffy predictions and proper expectations","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Synthese","topic":"Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics","field":"Arts and Humanities","cited_by":62,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Philosophy of language; Successor cardinal; Philosophy of science; Metaphysics; Epistemology; sort; Philosophy of mind; Speech act; Philosophy; Connection (principal bundle); Process (computing); Computer science; Psychology; Linguistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0102639,0.001040421,0.001058648,0.002553901,0.00242821,0.00838632,0.002721814,0.004034062,0.03052364],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05702288,0.0007454886,0.000850556,0.001289025,0.01245048,0.02115058,0.003782224,0.004735859,0.00349823],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003613065,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002932898,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001558745,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001547899,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9899808,0.005611853,0.0006044028,0.001600451,0.001546932,0.0006556255],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9748313,0.0147498,0.001637463,0.004885826,0.003306524,0.0005889967],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000243293,0.00001332782,0.0001762705,0.00004441905,0.000009042032,0.00003453442,0.0004430366,0.000489194,0.00003371722,0.9930339,0.001817264,0.003880842],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000006431947,0.000002674577,0.00009455309,0.00003576896,0.000003234029,0.0000101801,0.000239612,0.001234684,0.00009698738,0.9954689,0.002803214,0.000003694641],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04041954,0.002673057,0.2812389,0.06937569,0.001916096,0.0001508654,0.0009596478,0.0004648287,0.6028014],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9506587,0.0009396158,0.02913088,0.003629141,0.001067888,0.0002550729,0.0005130138,0.0002849783,0.01352061],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.03052364,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1021117,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04550433135311171,"score_gpt":0.2389985798613773,"score_spread":0.1934942485082656,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}