{"id":"W2129484541","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1973440","title":"Prospect Performance Evaluation: Making a Case for a Non-Asymptotic UMPU Test","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":18,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Test (biology); Econometrics; Computer science; Mathematics; Biology; Ecology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004049677,0.000168184,0.0002906694,0.0001854345,0.0004387477,0.00006082961,0.0002069989,0.00009251728,0.00009187748],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003087433,0.0001833903,0.000162508,0.0001923752,0.00002903963,0.0003725642,0.00002735737,0.0007397999,0.00007659464],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008697468,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006657778,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007728752,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004534934,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974808,0.00001088335,0.0006277841,0.0003195092,0.00006547184,0.001495626],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991591,0.00004522624,0.0003834058,0.0002155696,0.00014156,0.00005516617],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002555242,0.0004760087,0.3832025,0.00009420504,0.000235148,0.00003489972,0.003701899,0.00030828,0.00001740204,0.5016537,0.00008736427,0.1099331],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001960196,0.001215896,0.01330252,0.00006335968,0.00005692371,0.002423432,0.0004911867,0.3819417,0.00004225499,0.5971675,0.0008464234,0.0004886491],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9188504,0.00325716,0.07283247,0.0001058513,0.0003488128,0.0005833498,0.00001678431,0.00002457014,0.003980665],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969792,0.0006691137,0.001594687,0.00004185125,0.0003308751,0.00006311893,0.000002351512,0.00003234941,0.0002864942],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3816334,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7478439,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05833398739813561,"score_gpt":0.2601836667487392,"score_spread":0.2018496793506036,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}