{"id":"W2131103079","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.486162","title":"Forecasting Sales: A Model and Some Evidence from the Retail Industry","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":36,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Retail sales; Retail industry; Business; Marketing; Sales forecasting; Industrial organization","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006857241,0.0001272266,0.000152416,0.00006562896,0.000621802,0.0003956397,0.001085751,0.0001830275,0.00004061377],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003164651,0.00007358345,0.00008123508,0.0002993073,0.0001771695,0.0005069427,0.0001824216,0.004772133,0.00002031619],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000834125,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001042632,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009898945,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001341739,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975644,0.00007427556,0.0004320802,0.0003137945,0.0006183934,0.0009970807],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9976109,0.00130208,0.0003193521,0.0004901807,0.0001746177,0.0001028991],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006873433,0.00006855717,0.03979337,0.000002038047,0.00007887394,0.000005101845,0.001528621,0.0009080261,0.01138421,0.4259624,0.006547255,0.5136528],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008645566,0.00004559742,0.000665399,0.0000294829,0.00001388675,0.0002785762,0.0006833911,0.1021037,0.00007709005,0.8949946,0.000924347,0.00009754625],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9697654,0.001068388,0.02140627,0.007338814,0.00007853109,0.0001167297,0.000006372579,0.00003932214,0.0001801492],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9938528,0.0004683695,0.004084856,0.0002331255,0.0003913586,0.00001145688,7.0573e-7,0.00001342952,0.0009439168],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5135552,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9975239,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1566464585256792,"score_gpt":0.3633119241225707,"score_spread":0.2066654655968916,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}