{"id":"W2134272172","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2184260","title":"The Scale of Predictability","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal; Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations; Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Scale (ratio); Computer science; Geography; Mathematics; Statistics; Cartography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001919794,0.0003498123,0.0006447259,0.002007483,0.0009030707,0.004422485,0.0005899711,0.001510965,0.007326582],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01876796,0.0004108996,0.0003909727,0.00108445,0.006075483,0.0112819,0.002104779,0.002328676,0.0008511409],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008522726,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005657994,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006142397,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002986612,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987659,0.0003128613,0.00005714164,0.000349375,0.0004039392,0.0001107146],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9866623,0.009117192,0.000840187,0.002275382,0.0006996152,0.0004053302],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000330699,0.00001346787,0.002950469,0.00005800206,0.00004514036,0.0000691932,0.0003348606,0.002933566,0.0008024393,0.9697933,0.003409626,0.01955688],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005936144,0.00001067403,0.003906769,0.00001832403,0.00001074635,0.00004700843,0.0001188462,0.005061019,0.0001704023,0.9863344,0.00430146,0.00001441095],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3790826,0.01855768,0.1716014,0.05561966,0.001772464,0.00007747849,0.001568664,0.001244625,0.3704753],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9917555,0.0011373,0.002977318,0.0004300833,0.0009923646,0.0000374675,0.0001154312,0.00008407611,0.002470398],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007326582,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02450985,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.009697871630663796,"score_gpt":0.2056850016124322,"score_spread":0.1959871299817685,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}