{"id":"W2137842965","doi":"10.18187/pjsor.v10i2.732","title":"ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":20,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Windsor","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Sophistication; Statistical software; Government (linguistics); Order (exchange); Time series; Box–Jenkins; Economics; Econometrics; Mathematics; Statistics; Finance; Social science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008736769,0.0000926569,0.0002599646,0.0003246999,0.0003430977,0.0003843796,0.0001554111,0.00004607687,0.000017463],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001830063,0.00006781836,0.00002092134,0.0002059346,0.0002735023,0.0001476745,0.0001015074,0.0002613702,2.719119e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002275689,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008975167,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002686894,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001879001,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974598,0.0001588913,0.0009468122,0.0002305607,0.001023183,0.0001807398],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9964762,0.001735577,0.0004093315,0.0001817838,0.001018676,0.0001783717],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001215957,0.00006766807,0.006335513,0.00004952946,0.00001323355,0.00001700739,0.001140924,0.001354263,0.005843162,0.7871996,0.00254331,0.1953142],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005589406,0.001034126,0.006578755,0.0001638057,0.00001237611,0.0001304668,0.001195603,0.6007766,0.00135886,0.386091,0.001923831,0.0001757279],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5438118,0.0001021495,0.4548341,0.0002362905,0.00002017249,0.000121234,0.00005044428,0.000003392029,0.0008204475],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8588839,0.0001326299,0.1408383,0.00002426271,0.00003512082,0.000002894032,0.000001735164,0.000008423047,0.00007271481],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5994223,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3706581,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2452023616762303,"score_gpt":0.4976773774501498,"score_spread":0.2524750157739195,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}