{"id":"W2138389645","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.1110.1374","title":"CEO Overconfidence and Innovation","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Corporate Finance and Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":865,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Entrepreneurship; Business; Stock options; Stock (firearms); Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Psychology; Finance; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002120737,0.0001053335,0.000219828,0.0007525352,0.0002033994,0.0009790857,0.0002531868,0.0005351742,0.001300568],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02624532,0.0001186175,0.0002045406,0.0006182907,0.0004241576,0.0005731931,0.0006307741,0.0006837624,0.0001185872],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003303303,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002304373,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001321681,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001267569,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991405,0.0003102354,0.00007606265,0.0001001386,0.0002209402,0.0001521056],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9417008,0.02408038,0.02795943,0.001399785,0.001620342,0.003239141],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005906502,0.00005229928,0.9928173,0.000006935036,0.00003393576,0.00005576889,0.0001868595,0.0003228018,0.0001032555,0.0002273736,0.00006389461,0.00607055],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005769545,0.00006285553,0.9977133,0.00001034929,0.00001533617,0.0001516484,0.0002332003,0.0009196366,0.0001089486,0.0006005177,0.0001726059,0.000005863169],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9985482,0.0002676548,0.0001056936,0.0002380394,0.00000361412,0.000001310726,0.00002095495,0.000001158962,0.0008133691],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9997154,0.00008566999,0.00002375882,0.00002207998,0.00001189959,7.199496e-7,0.00001751461,3.043335e-7,0.00012267],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002120737,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01121563,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04174301412034143,"score_gpt":0.2203925308919157,"score_spread":0.1786495167715743,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}