{"id":"W2138389645","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.1110.1374","title":"CEO Overconfidence and Innovation","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Corporate Finance and Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":865,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Entrepreneurship; Business; Stock options; Stock (firearms); Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Psychology; Finance; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004839152,0.00008977018,0.00006651187,0.0004361898,0.0002169753,0.000182195,0.0003362891,0.00001319339,0.0001096607],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003025565,0.00008443466,0.000009466627,0.002969001,0.0002380309,0.002533116,0.0002723412,0.00004168552,0.0002355538],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001604392,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000007674413,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001865887,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001366117,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990093,0.000001118188,0.0001436622,0.0003283011,0.0002929042,0.000224738],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995254,0.000002945585,0.0001513286,0.0002219846,0.00009240348,0.000005903426],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007995945,0.00002229986,0.09191785,0.00004751023,0.000002144357,0.00001273639,0.00003463542,0.000002182072,0.0003294468,0.8896984,0.001227573,0.01669722],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001888438,0.000006039807,0.9368333,0.00003287731,0.00001005018,8.21173e-7,0.00008277845,0.0005438332,0.0001576442,0.0195084,0.0424762,0.0001592146],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7031865,0.00001700325,0.003179936,0.0002260534,0.0002901226,0.0001759487,4.49856e-7,0.00007555252,0.2928485],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9956595,0.00001809524,0.0007008967,0.002108555,0.00008237294,0.00001081925,6.547266e-7,0.000005257383,0.001413819],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.87019,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3443145,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04174301412034143,"score_gpt":0.2203925308919157,"score_spread":0.1786495167715743,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}